Sales forecast Excel template: weight each deal, add what's won and read the gap

A sales manager rarely needs a twelve-month revenue model. You need this month, the deals in it, and how far the likely total sits from the target. This sheet does that in one page.

Download the Excel or Word file, or copy it. In Excel, the stage is a drop-down, and the chance, the weighted value and the gap fill themselves in.

Sales forecast: [team or your name]

Month: ______ Updated: ______

The month

• Month's target: ______

Stages: move a deal only when this is true

• Meeting booked. It's in both calendars.
• Needs agreed. They've told you the problem, who decides and by when.
• Proposal sent. They have a price in writing.
• Verbal yes. They've said yes and the paperwork is out.
• Won. Signed or paid.
• Lost. They said no, or went quiet.

Your chance of winning at each stage, in %

• Meeting booked: __
• Needs agreed: __
• Proposal sent: __
• Verbal yes: __

Deals that could close this month

The forecast

• Won so far: ______
• Weighted open deals: ______
• Forecast: ______ (won so far plus weighted open deals)
• Gap to target: ______ (forecast minus target)
• Upside: ______ (won so far plus every open deal at full value)

Notes

• Won counts at 100% and Lost at 0. Every other chance is yours: of the deals that reached a stage last quarter, how many did you win?
• Take out any deal nobody has spoken to in two weeks, whatever its stage.

Do it on the same day each week.

1. Set your chance for each stage once, from last quarter's won and lost deals.
2. List only the deals with a close date this month.
3. Pick each deal's stage. In Excel, the chance and the weighted value fill themselves in.
4. Put in the month's target and read the gap.
5. Ask each rep about their biggest deal, and leave the rest of the list alone.

• The buyer agreed the close date, and it falls this month.
• Someone spoke to them in the last two weeks.
• The stage matches what the buyer has done, whatever the rep feels about it.
• Won means signed or paid. A verbal yes stays a verbal yes.
• A deal that slips goes on next month's sheet.

A four-person team sells office fit-outs, and it's 13 October. The deals, names, numbers and stage chances are all made up. Use your own chances: Meeting booked 10%, Needs agreed 25%, Proposal sent 50% and Verbal yes 75% are here only to show the sums.

• Target for October: S$60,000.
• Won so far: S$12,000 + S$8,000 = S$20,000.
• Weighted open deals: S$12,000 + S$5,000 + S$4,000 + S$3,000 + S$2,000 = S$26,000.
• Forecast: S$20,000 + S$26,000 = S$46,000.
• Gap to target: S$46,000 - S$60,000 = S$14,000 short, with 18 days to go.
• Upside: S$20,000 + S$66,000 of open deals at full value = S$86,000.

So the week's question goes to Aisha and Chee Keong: can Marlow Foods sign, and is the Tern Logistics date real? That one is S$20,000 at full value, and it's only counted at S$2,000.

This sheet weights open deals by stage. It suits a month, and a team that sells deal by deal. Two other methods cover what it doesn't:

• Same month last year, plus or minus what's changed. It needs a year of records, and it ignores what's in front of you now.
• A rolling average of the last three months. It's quick, and a slow month drags it down.

If finance wants twelve months, start from last year's sales month by month and add a growth figure you can defend. The numbers below are made up.

Keep this month's sheet beside it. When the two disagree, go through the deals on the sheet first.

Palby Sales Tracker doesn't forecast anything, and it doesn't hold deal values or revenue. This sheet stays your forecast. The tracker counts the activity underneath it.

Reps log a call, a meeting or a close with a tap on their phone, and the board shows each rep's counts. Needs you today lists anyone with no entry for 3 days, then whoever is furthest behind their weekly goal. Analytics shows trends and who has gone quiet, and you can export a performance summary to CSV.

See how reports and analytics work.